Could an already-designed wireless technology be as hot as cold fusion? Research firm Cahners In-Stat Group seems to think so.

In-Stat said it believes a technology known as "radio frequency micro-electromechanical systems" (RF MEMS) can deliver a substantial increase in efficiency and gain a greater market if some of the kinks are worked out. These devices can provide true on/off switching that will seriously improve the energy use of wireless phones, In-Stat said, but certain obstacles must be addressed first. One barrier is the price of the technology.

But Marlene Bourne, a senior analyst with In-Stat, believes RF MEMS could play a key role in the near future. "In the case of cell phones, they would replace the pin diodes that are currently being used to switch signals," Bourne told Wireless NewsFactor. 

"There are currently no phones that contain RF MEMS; however, the technology is currently being designed in, and a number of phones will be on the market next year with RF MEMS being used in the antennas."

A Better Wireless Phone

In-Stat said that by using RF MEMS, handset makers could design new phones that are much more functional with increased energy efficiency.

"With upwards of 1 billion cell phones forecast to be sold in 2005, and each integrating at least one (and in some cases multiple) RF MEMS, there's no doubt this market provides tremendous opportunity," In-Stat senior analyst Marlene Bourne said. "There are a number of applications in which RF MEMS is the ideal answer to a specific need."

In fact, In-Stat has gone so far as to predict that the market for RF MEMS will grow from about US$1 million in 2001 to nearly $350 million by 2006.

Barriers to Growth

"RF MEMS systems are currently too expensive for all but the highest-end cell phones, and certain developmental issues must still be overcome," according to the In-Stat report. The group believes that cost will be the initial barrier to penetration but that pricing can be improved.

Making the MEMS and the volume in which they are produced is not the key issue. What holds the devices back is the trouble of packaging MEMS. Then there are the technical glitches.

Although RF MEMS are in line with the size and power consumption of current switch/relay technologies, their life cycle and reliability need a little work, In-Stat said. In order to bring these devices to market, they first will be used with other MEMS technology -- including inductors, capacitors and filters. These, along with the RF MEMS switches, will improve the quality of wireless devices and the ability to fine-tune their circuits.

In-Stat is a unit of Cahners Business Information, which is part of the Reed Elsevier PLC group