27 11 02

Market Saturation in Western Europe Brings New Challenges, But Average Revenues Will Rise Across the Region in 2003

A new Yankee Group report finds that the industry is successfully adapting to the new dynamics of saturated voice markets. From rich multimedia services and content partnerships to highly functional devices and interoperability, all the main elements are now falling into place.

An overall increase in ARPU is already evident for certain operators in 2002, reinforcing the Yankee Group's belief that the industry is at the bottom of the curve. We can now expect:
 

A rise in regional ARPU in 2003, driven by stable voice revenues and an increase in data ARPU from $2.78 per month in 2001 to $9.71 by 2007.
Total service revenues of $131 billion in 2007, with the proportion attributable to voice falling from 90 percent in 2001 to 69 percent.
 

Postpaid net additions to surpass prepaid in 2003; combined with migration, prepaid will account for only 52 percent of all users in 2007 (from 65 percent in 2002).
A further 54 million people to embrace mobile telephony by 2007, with Western Europe's share of the global market falling from above 30 percent to around 20 percent due to the relatively untapped markets of Asia and the Americas.
 

Farid Yunus, Wireless/Mobile Europe senior analyst concludes, "The current malaise in the wireless industry and global economy at large has not seriously dampened our long-term outlook for the European cellular market. Mobile revenues will continue to grow, not spectacularly, but healthily, driven by key enabling technologies, stable voice revenues and growing demand for data services. We've said that 2003 will be the turning point. We're more confident than ever."